Gambling is doubling down with a ten vs. a face card or betting way too much on that favorite-over Monday night football parlay and breaking even for the weekend, or betting on your alma mater as a +500 underdog and watching the upset happen--and it's fun!
But that's not what this site is for. This is a handicapping website.
This site understands there are many gamblers out there who do predictably dumb things to create an edge for true handicappers.
Including the vig, you need to hit 52.5% of your bets to stay in business.
Most pro handicappers/gamblers hit 53-55%. They aren't prophets. They are disciplined in applying the slight edge their models create for them vs. the general betting public--and they still get it wrong almost as often as they get it right--but not quite as often.
Being a winning practioner is not about nailing a 100% ROI in three hours on one game when you "felt it" (although that's fun too)-- it's about applying a consistent strategy over the long run to take advantage of small edges that creep up because gamblers let their emotions cloud their rationality.
Sports gambling is wild and fun, do that all you want. If you have a problem, stop and go get some EMDR trauma therapy--seriously. If it's not fun anymore, stop--the money will come back when you get healthy.
Nobody has a gambling problem, they either have a losing problem, a lack of consistently applying a winning system problem, a deep-seated self-hatred with the need to punish themselves by losing problem, or they just haven't run across the right system yet.
Handicapping is simple.
You start by creating a line from somewhere.
Every gambler does this--most of them create theirs by asking "How good do I think this team is vs the other team? What's the betting line? That looks good to me, yeehaw!"
We make ours by blending publicly available data through a simple algorithm--and then we compare the line that process created to the betting line.
If the line you create says UNC should be favored by nine over Duke and they are only favored by six by the general public, then you have an advantage--assuming your line is more accurate than the betting line.
And regardless of how it turns out, you always have the "I'm doing the right thing for humanity" advantage when you bet the Tar Heels to destroy Duke.
And here's the fun part--gambling lines aren't meant to accurately predict outcomes.
They are meant to effectively split public sentiment. You're not betting against the house, you're betting that you can create a more accurate predictive model than the overall random wagering population.
In short, there's no reason you can't create better models than the general wagering public when most of the public's sentiment is skewed by recency bias or Budweiser red when they place their bets.
And these better models give you a slight edge.
And when you apply a consistent tiny edge over and over again--you win.
If you want to win in the long run, you have to learn to stop taking big bites here and there and choose to apply your slight edge as many times as possible.
And that's what this site is for--we create a line for you for all the games we feel like handicapping so you can have action on every single game--with a slight edge.
This system isn't perfect. If you follow it, you will lose games, many games, even games where you have a large edge--sometimes you double an eleven vs a six, draw a nine, and the dealer draws to twenty-one. It happens.
You'll even lose some entire weekly sessions and get crushed on multiple slates of games--especially the small sets.
But if you apply the system consistently, maybe you'll win just a few more than you lose. And wouldn't that be fun?
It's far more entertaining to have action on every possible game than it is to have it sitting in a low interest savings account somewhere.
And best of all it's gifted to you as a social experiment.
There will be no "unlock the top picks" or "plays of the year" emails sent to you or texts or phone calls. You'll see the edge for every game I feel like handicapping.
The social experiment is this--I think gamblers are good people deep down and honorable. And when they do well, they are generous--often to a fault.
So if that sounds like you, when you win, remember this little site, and if you feel like it, come throw a little chump change our way so we can handicap more games for you.
And in the end, if we lose it all on the weekend we go 0 for 50, to paraphrase an inspirational figure from the Cold War Era, "If we die, we die."
--Big Vin and my boy Stan, your friends who help you win
Hello, this is Vincent Castellani, aka Vinny C., aka Big Vin. Here at grindtowin, this site founded by me and my boy Stan, we never lose--we learn or we win. Me and my boy Stan Yarborough love making more games more exciting for more people by givin' em a slight edge over the random idiot tryin' a make a quick score.